Shocking, yet the bitter truth!
While the deadly coronavirus is fast spreading globally, the United Kingdom is likely to see a completely-different scenario all together.
As a local leading media sources report, the corona outbreak in UK is expected to continue until the ‘Spring 2021’, with transmission rate at ‘one in four’ and hitting 7.9 million people.
Sources cited the Public Health England (PHE) to have informed this to the senior National Health Service (NHS) officials in a secret briefing.
In their brief report, officials opined that the COVID-19 outbreak would spread to the next 12 months causing huge strain to NHS.
The health officials were informed that around 80 percent of Britons would be corona-affected by then.
“As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalization,” reads a statement.
‘One in Every Five People’ Likely: Report
Going more into details, around 5 lakh of the 5 million UK staff in ‘essential services and critical infrastructure areas’ are likely to be off the work at one time during a month-long peak of the pandemic.
This primarily includes 1 million NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care sectors.
“It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity,” reads another statement.
While the government’s chief medical adviser felt the number might not be that severe, the report made it very clear that the spread rate would be ‘one in every five people’.
It is noteworthy that the British Government had last week issued directives asking ‘any one with cough’ to remain isolated for at least a week period.
With this estimates, the hopes over some sort of relief from the upcoming summer has taken a hit, says the source.
What’s More Alarming From the Report?
The report document noted:
- Health services cannot manage to test people with symptoms as labs are under severe demand pressures
- From now on, only those very seriously ill, hospitalized, and people in care homes and prisons where the virus was detected will only be tested
- Testing services are under severe pressure that even NHS staff, who closely deal with patients, will not be covered
A senior NHS official, who was crucial in preparing the report, said 80 percent infection rate will mean more than half a million dying.
According to experts, 1 percent mortality rate, as per estimates, will mean more than 5 lakh deaths. Meanwhile, renowned British journalist Stephen Whitty opines that estimated 0.6 percent rate would equal to more than 3 lakh deaths.
Whitty, who has studied the global trends, says the numbers would be growing further over the next 10-14 weeks i.e., which would be the mid of May and June 2020.
Moreover, governments across the world are also likely to take longer durations, giving the health facilities enough scope to handle the peak situation.
After the peak situation, the rate is likely to come down for 10 weeks or more, especially in summer as people spend more time outside rather than restricting to closed rooms.
There will be a further rise as autumn or winter begins, say the experts, citing a need for the long-term strategy. In this regard, a pitch is being made for developing a new vaccine in 18 months to control the disease.
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