India has already crossed the 3-lakh mark for COVID-19 positive cases and may see a more worst scenario ahead.
Ramanan Laxminarayan, Director of the Washington-based Center for Disease, Dynamics, Economics, and Policy (CDDEP), revealed some alarming facts in an interview with a media house.
Here are few excerpts from what Ramanan said about the COVID-19 scenario in India:
1) COVID-19 Peak Levels
There will not be a single peak, and in fact, a plateau trend with a large number of cases per day would be the case. This is going to be favored by different states touching peaks at different points of time.
2) 300 Mn Cases by July
ICMR’s test and trace program indicates 10 million cases by mid of May 2020. Considering that, there is a possibility of 300+ million infections by July.
3) Impact of Monsoons
The scenario will either be ‘no change’ or could get worse. There is no probable explanation to say that the transmission will be lower.
4) Mortality Rate Vs. Other Nations
India’s COVID-19 deaths could be fewer compared to other nations, majorly due to the large young population. However, the country’s testing rate is lower in the world, which means death cases could be missing. While India’s testing rate is 4,000 tests/million, Spain or Italy has 75,000 tests/million. According to ICMR, the ratio between reported infections and true infections stands at 1:200.
5) Community Transmission and Immunity
There is more certainty around community transmission compared to other sources, including airline passengers. Over the point that contracting a virus once will make an individual immune, Ramanan says that the immunity may last for six months in the short-term or even long for a lifetime.
6) Did Lockdown Help?
“Lockdowns are blunt tools and should be used sparingly,” says Ramanan. Early lockdown helped to some extent in preparing for the future. Now, further lockdowns may not be of much help, and the best thing would be to remain prepared in places where the caseload is still low.