Seems India is rapidly driving itself into a worst-case scenario, as the national and international experts expect.
A day earlier, we have reported excerpts from what Ramanan Laxminarayan, Director of the Washington-based Center for Disease, Dynamics, Economics, and Policy (CDDEP), told media.
According to Ramanan, India is most likely to see more than 300 million infections by July 2020.
Here is a new study that has projections far beyond the 300 million mark by mid-July itself.
A new forecast from the University of Michigan says India may touch 800,000 cases by July 15, 2020, as its citizens ask people ‘to learn to live with the virus’.
The study puts India next to Brazil, the second worst-hit nation now, and may go beyond that.
Bhramar Mukherjee, who is part of the study, has reportedly removed long-term projections from the team’s website to avoid creating panic.
“I wish I could be more positive, but I think it’s going to be hard over the next couple of months,” says Mukherjee.
Though India has tried lockdown early in March, that did not help flatten the country’s COVID-19 curve.
Instead, the lockdown pushed full-year economic performance to a four-year low, prompting the government to ease lockdown.
With that, the cases continued to rise further touching 11,000 cases per day, placing India in the fourth position globally.
Moreover, with the migrant population leaving back to villages, the number of cases has increased across rural India too.
Amid this scenario, India has no choice other than reducing casualties by asking its people to maintain strict social distancing.
While lockdowns in other countries helped control rise in daily cases, the scenario is completely different in India, given the country’s population density.
Mukherjee says the country can expect peaks as the pandemic spreads across the country.
India is undergoing a pathetic situation for economic fall with lockdown and rising COVID-19 cases despite lockdown.
“India can’t afford to have any more lockdowns, so the strategy is to open up and deal with the virus. I think the slogan is live with the corona,” says Ramanan.
Possibility of COVID-19 Vaccine
While the cases are rising, there appears no possibility of the COVID-19 vaccine anytime around.
As per the sources, there are 100 vaccines under development globally and may take years before they become viable and accessible.
Meanwhile, the country’s major cities are running out of medical facilities. New Delhi and Mumbai are reporting piling up of bodies and lack of beds to accommodate patients across medical centers.
